Does anyone know an example where the result is intuitive to most people? The sort of thing where you tell someone the Monty Hall problem with a million doors before they think about the case with 3.
There is an example above with mortality for people with/without heart disease based on eating hamburgers; if you partition by having heart disease, you falsely would infer that in some of the population, hamburgers aren’t bad for you. Obviously, the real issue is that actually the hamburgers are what initially caused the heart disease.
I am sure there are better examples, but this one will suffice. If anyone gives it some though and comes up with a better one, that would be great.
I would guess it would be something with an obvious confounding variable that you’ve forgotten to factor out. e.g. the “fluoride causes false teeth” example is pretty good for that, but is maybe not quite intuitive enough for what you’re looking for.
Does anyone know an example where the result is intuitive to most people? The sort of thing where you tell someone the Monty Hall problem with a million doors before they think about the case with 3.
There is an example above with mortality for people with/without heart disease based on eating hamburgers; if you partition by having heart disease, you falsely would infer that in some of the population, hamburgers aren’t bad for you. Obviously, the real issue is that actually the hamburgers are what initially caused the heart disease.
I am sure there are better examples, but this one will suffice. If anyone gives it some though and comes up with a better one, that would be great.
I would guess it would be something with an obvious confounding variable that you’ve forgotten to factor out. e.g. the “fluoride causes false teeth” example is pretty good for that, but is maybe not quite intuitive enough for what you’re looking for.