Be careful, though: some events (e.g. a terrorist attack) can be broken down into a disjunction of very many things (e.g. a specific scenario), each of which taken by itself is highly improbable. If you only focus on the list of causes you can imagine, you’ll miss a lot of fat tails (or end up focusing your efforts on a really non-exhaustive list).
Be careful, though: some events (e.g. a terrorist attack) can be broken down into a disjunction of very many things (e.g. a specific scenario), each of which taken by itself is highly improbable. If you only focus on the list of causes you can imagine, you’ll miss a lot of fat tails (or end up focusing your efforts on a really non-exhaustive list).
Indeed. This is the message I took home from the Amanda Knox test.