“Luck” or “intelligence”? How do you tell the difference from a distance?
Recording predictions and comparing them to actual events helps.
It’s not guaranteed—it’s still possible that my predictions came true by sheer coincidence—but the amount of luck required to fulfill detailed predictions is significantly higher than the amount of luck required to support compelling post-hoc explanations.
Of course, this presumes that the putatively intelligent system is attempting to demonstrate it’s intelligence. If they want me to think it’s luck, that’s a much harder problem.
Recording predictions and comparing them to actual events helps.
It’s not guaranteed—it’s still possible that my predictions came true by sheer coincidence—but the amount of luck required to fulfill detailed predictions is significantly higher than the amount of luck required to support compelling post-hoc explanations.
Of course, this presumes that the putatively intelligent system is attempting to demonstrate it’s intelligence. If they want me to think it’s luck, that’s a much harder problem.