Here is an expert trying to reverse engineer the government’s strategy. [I do have some concerns with his approach, he seems to have an exaggerated view of how accurately you can manage R0. There is such a narrow zone for R0 between “it blows up fast and high” and “it rapidly declines close to zero”, that IMHO it is futile to try to finesse how much slackness we can get away with.]
On this particular topic, some actual (official) experts are starting to come forward with good material.
I like this one, with the new insight that quarantine in isolation was very important. Beyond “please stay home”.
Presentation
https://zoom.us/rec/play/v8Ytceqqqzs3GNzB4gSDB_59W9TsK6Ks13RI_6cLxB62BSUAOlumZeRAZLC7e1vif7xIyy6HL_uXyNHw?startTime=1584118874000&fbclid=IwAR3VvAr7vZg2M0ZHEHYeGFsRrC0RvL3vwtCcUTmnZTccWW644x-nJt7FxyI
Paper
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593v1
Slides
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QFfBbs-7-qCqDJ93_Ww6QQUQlMVp77Pl/view
Here is an expert trying to reverse engineer the government’s strategy. [I do have some concerns with his approach, he seems to have an exaggerated view of how accurately you can manage R0. There is such a narrow zone for R0 between “it blows up fast and high” and “it rapidly declines close to zero”, that IMHO it is futile to try to finesse how much slackness we can get away with.]
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-modelling-shows-the-government-is-getting-the-balance-right-if-our-aim-is-to-flatten-the-curve-134040