Step one: new trick is discovered solving some problem X which couldn’t be handled before.
Step two: people try to apply it to everything that the old styles didn’t work on like problem Y which is sort of in the same problem class. At this stage overly enthusiastic people may over-promise. “I’m sure it will work amazingly on Y”
Step three: “Bah! These CS types never deliver, Y will always be better done by humans.”
Step four: Interest and funding flees as the news stops paying attention, a few people keep chipping away at the problem and eventually slightly outperform humans on Y and try to get it to work on Z.
Step five: Someone proves mathematically that it can never solve major set of problems in Z.
Will it “bust”, or will it be superseded by the next wave of more general AI architectures designed to require less supervision, less data?
If the typical pattern holds:
Step one: new trick is discovered solving some problem X which couldn’t be handled before.
Step two: people try to apply it to everything that the old styles didn’t work on like problem Y which is sort of in the same problem class. At this stage overly enthusiastic people may over-promise. “I’m sure it will work amazingly on Y”
Step three: “Bah! These CS types never deliver, Y will always be better done by humans.”
Step four: Interest and funding flees as the news stops paying attention, a few people keep chipping away at the problem and eventually slightly outperform humans on Y and try to get it to work on Z.
Step five: Someone proves mathematically that it can never solve major set of problems in Z.
Step six: Someone comes up a new trick… GOTO 1