Trump is good at making people see whatever they want to see in him, even if it is different things for different people. That’s what makes him a successful politician.
Many rationalists enjoy uncritical contrarianism: they say things that defy common sense to signal how much smarter they are, and even if that’s not the way to make best predictions, it is a way to occasionally make a weird prediction that turns out to be correct, so you can be proud of it and conveniently forget many other similar predictions that turned out to be wrong.
So yeah, this is a bad combination, because no matter how much evidence we get, the game of pretending that everything Trump does is a 5D-chess move is too enjoyable. Trump does things; if some of them happen to be good, it is “I told you so”, and if some of them happen to be bad, it is “just wait, I am sure this is all a part of a greater plan”. But the only plan is to get more power for Trump; the consequences for the economy, society, education, science, etc. are mere side effects. Anyone who still doesn’t get it is too addicted to wishful thinking.
(I wonder about Project 2025. I don’t know the details, but it wouldn’t surprise me to find out that even its authors are disappointed by Trump. At least this review on EA Forum sounds to me much smarter and more coherent than anything that Trump administration actually did.)
Trump is good at making people see whatever they want to see in him, even if it is different things for different people. That’s what makes him a successful politician.
Many rationalists enjoy uncritical contrarianism: they say things that defy common sense to signal how much smarter they are, and even if that’s not the way to make best predictions, it is a way to occasionally make a weird prediction that turns out to be correct, so you can be proud of it and conveniently forget many other similar predictions that turned out to be wrong.
So yeah, this is a bad combination, because no matter how much evidence we get, the game of pretending that everything Trump does is a 5D-chess move is too enjoyable. Trump does things; if some of them happen to be good, it is “I told you so”, and if some of them happen to be bad, it is “just wait, I am sure this is all a part of a greater plan”. But the only plan is to get more power for Trump; the consequences for the economy, society, education, science, etc. are mere side effects. Anyone who still doesn’t get it is too addicted to wishful thinking.
(I wonder about Project 2025. I don’t know the details, but it wouldn’t surprise me to find out that even its authors are disappointed by Trump. At least this review on EA Forum sounds to me much smarter and more coherent than anything that Trump administration actually did.)