The parallel calculation would be
P(L) = p * P_calculated + (1-p) * P_typical
I don’t put P_typical very high.
Meta point: I think you might be stopping at the first good answer.
Okay, I’ll grant you that one. I’m still promoting my original idea to a top-level post.
Edit: …in part because I would like more eyes to see it and provide feedback—I would love to know if it has some interesting faults.
Edit: Here it is.
The parallel calculation would be
I don’t put P_typical very high.
Okay, I’ll grant you that one. I’m still promoting my original idea to a top-level post.
Edit: …in part because I would like more eyes to see it and provide feedback—I would love to know if it has some interesting faults.
Edit: Here it is.