Not only does komponisto’s model make poor predictions; he in fact wants it to do this. That’s why he brings up the image of a computer calculating your posteriors, so that you can say the probability of such and such is 10^-50, even though even komponisto knows that you are not and cannot be calibrated in asserting this probability.
Not only does komponisto’s model make poor predictions; he in fact wants it to do this. That’s why he brings up the image of a computer calculating your posteriors, so that you can say the probability of such and such is 10^-50, even though even komponisto knows that you are not and cannot be calibrated in asserting this probability.