There is a massive error here. Annual AI investment is at least 100B annually not a few hundred million. Investors expect something. See Stanford state of AI.
Also I think the gpt-4 capabilities are a black swan and were not priced in. AGI is likely this decade. Investors are going to likely bet accordingly.
I think hundreds of billion scaling to 1T+ annually will happen by 2030 if the AGI this decade hypothesis is true.
Investors mostly aren’t betting on TAI—as I understand it, they generally want a return on their investment in <10 years, and had they expected AGI in the next 10-20 years they would have been pouring far more than some measly hundreds of millions into AI companies today.
I was not referencing total investment, but the size of a typical investment like the one mentioned further down (“For example, Character.AI recently raised >$200M at a $1B valuation for a service that doesn’t really seem to add much value on top of the standard ChatGPT API, especially now that OpenAI has added the system prompt feature.”) … But I realize that this was really unclear and will edit to clarify.
Also I think the gpt-4 capabilities are a black swan and were not priced in.
Interesting, personally I would’ve guessed ChatGPT had a larger effect than GPT-4 here, and that that’s largely down to it showing the viability of LLMs as products, which seems to point in favor of “investors mostly don’t bet on TAI”. But I could be wrong here, of course.
There is a massive error here. Annual AI investment is at least 100B annually not a few hundred million. Investors expect something. See Stanford state of AI.
Also I think the gpt-4 capabilities are a black swan and were not priced in. AGI is likely this decade. Investors are going to likely bet accordingly.
I think hundreds of billion scaling to 1T+ annually will happen by 2030 if the AGI this decade hypothesis is true.
I take it you’re referring to
I was not referencing total investment, but the size of a typical investment like the one mentioned further down (“For example, Character.AI recently raised >$200M at a $1B valuation for a service that doesn’t really seem to add much value on top of the standard ChatGPT API, especially now that OpenAI has added the system prompt feature.”) … But I realize that this was really unclear and will edit to clarify.
Interesting, personally I would’ve guessed ChatGPT had a larger effect than GPT-4 here, and that that’s largely down to it showing the viability of LLMs as products, which seems to point in favor of “investors mostly don’t bet on TAI”. But I could be wrong here, of course.
GPT-4 makes less likely scenarios where TAI fails to exist by 2030. Putting it within a 7 year window for payoff.