I suspect the LHC was a mistake too, but that’s not clear just from the fact that it hasn’t revolutionized physics. We’d also have to correct for hindsight bias, and show that a Higgs-only outcome was too likely in advance to make the high-value alternative possibilities worth pursuing.
ETA: For instance, I believe I recall one physicist assigning probability ~.5 to ‘we only discover the higgs’ and ~.5 to ‘we discover the higgs plus new physics’ in advance. If the probability were anywhere near that high, it would likely be very easy to justify the LHC.
I suspect the LHC was a mistake too, but that’s not clear just from the fact that it hasn’t revolutionized physics. We’d also have to correct for hindsight bias, and show that a Higgs-only outcome was too likely in advance to make the high-value alternative possibilities worth pursuing.
ETA: For instance, I believe I recall one physicist assigning probability ~.5 to ‘we only discover the higgs’ and ~.5 to ‘we discover the higgs plus new physics’ in advance. If the probability were anywhere near that high, it would likely be very easy to justify the LHC.