I feel like we can spin up stories like this that go any way we want. I’d rather look at trends and some harder analysis.
For example we can tell an equally-entertaining story where any amount of AI progress slowdown in the US pushes researchers to other countries that care less about alignment, so no amount of slowdown is effective. Additionally, any amount of safety work and deployment criteria can push the best capabilities people to the firms with the least safety restrictions.
But do we think these are plausible, and specifically more plausible than alternatives where slowdowns work?
I feel like we can spin up stories like this that go any way we want. I’d rather look at trends and some harder analysis.
For example we can tell an equally-entertaining story where any amount of AI progress slowdown in the US pushes researchers to other countries that care less about alignment, so no amount of slowdown is effective. Additionally, any amount of safety work and deployment criteria can push the best capabilities people to the firms with the least safety restrictions.
But do we think these are plausible, and specifically more plausible than alternatives where slowdowns work?