It’s hard to come up with a reasonable probability distribution for a one-off event, not clear what the reference class might be. But my guess is that it would be some form of the power law, because it is universal and scale-independent. No idea about the power exponent though.
It’s hard to come up with a reasonable probability distribution for a one-off event, not clear what the reference class might be. But my guess is that it would be some form of the power law, because it is universal and scale-independent. No idea about the power exponent though.