It’s bumpy because either “normal” Deep Learning progress will get us there or there is a big roadblock ahead that will require a major scientific breakthrough.
The Deep Learning scenario creates a bump within the next two decades I would say.
Whole brain simulation could create another bump but I don’t know where.
The “major scientific breakthrough” scenario doesn’t create a bump. It could’ve happened yesterday.
It’s bumpy because either “normal” Deep Learning progress will get us there or there is a big roadblock ahead that will require a major scientific breakthrough.
The Deep Learning scenario creates a bump within the next two decades I would say.
Whole brain simulation could create another bump but I don’t know where.
The “major scientific breakthrough” scenario doesn’t create a bump. It could’ve happened yesterday.