Your example seems still confused to me. Maybe try something simpler like “Will it rain tomorrow? ” because you want to pack for a trip. There’s lots things you can inquire to figure out if this is likely. For example if it’s cloudy now that probably has some bearing on whether it will rain. You can look up past weather records for your region. More recently we have detailed models informing forecasts that you can access through the internet to inform you about the weather tomorrow. All of these are evidence.
There is also lots of observations you can make that are for all you know uncorrelated with whether it will rain tomorrow. Like the outcome of a dice throw you do. These do not constitute evidence toward your question or at least not very informative evidence.
Your example seems still confused to me. Maybe try something simpler like “Will it rain tomorrow? ” because you want to pack for a trip. There’s lots things you can inquire to figure out if this is likely. For example if it’s cloudy now that probably has some bearing on whether it will rain. You can look up past weather records for your region. More recently we have detailed models informing forecasts that you can access through the internet to inform you about the weather tomorrow. All of these are evidence.
There is also lots of observations you can make that are for all you know uncorrelated with whether it will rain tomorrow. Like the outcome of a dice throw you do. These do not constitute evidence toward your question or at least not very informative evidence.
Thank you for your reply it helped me a lot.