… people in democracies on average vote for more political power for the average Joe, which consequently means more power to those who form Joe’s opinions—the schools and the media. [...] To me it seems essentially correct.
Does it seem correct to you because it is the way you would expect the world to be, or because you have good observational data to back it up? I ask mainly because to me it seems a question whose answer is hard to establish; it’s true that in all democratic countries the average Joe gained some additional power in the course of the last century, but 1) it was mainly a result of suffrage extension; after establishing universal suffrage over 18 I don’t see any systematic increase of average Joe’s power, 2) when trying to conclude the direction of a very slow power shift, we need precise ways to define and measure power, unless we want to risk our conclusions being infested by bias and random errors; when asked whether the average José in Spain has more power now than he had fifteen years ago, not only I am unable to answer, but I also lack a clear idea what information to check if I seriously intended to do some research and find it out.
Not only I am not sure whether the average Joe has, on average, more power now than he had ten or twenty years ago (not speaking about countries which went through an abrupt regime change), but I also doubt whether the average Joe actually votes for more (political) power. I see election campaigns putting much emphasis on social security, taxes, crime, healthcare, corruption, even morality and religion in some countries, but comparably few parties promise more power to the citizens. If getting more power was one of the more important goals of the average Joe, why do the parties so rarely include it in their programs?
Another question is whether the average Joe thinks he’s an average Joe—given how self-serving biases work, I doubt it—and if not, why would he vote for more power for someone else?
Another question is whether the average Joe thinks he’s an average Joe—given how self-serving biases work, I doubt it—and if not, why would he vote for more power for someone else?
The average Joe knows that he is not a millionaire, he is not a movie star, and he did not get Nobel price. His biases will probably make him believe that he is between 60th and 70th percentile. He can still vote for less power for the top 10%, or more popularly 1%.
The rest of your questions… I don’t really know. Right at this moment it occurred to me that perhaps the feeling of power is more important that the power itself; most people don’t notice the difference. Saying “senator Sam will reduce crime and give you free healthcare if you vote for him, Joe” makes Joe feel powerful. Saying “milionaire Mark made his money legally, you can’t take his money away and use it as you want, Joe” does not make Joe feel powerful. Even if in reality senator Sam has more money than millionaire Mark, and senator Sam makes some rules that reduce Joe’s freedom, while Mark only provides cheap shiny toys for everyone. Generally, if Joe feels that he can influence the state (even if that influence is mostly illusory), a more powerful state will make Joe feel more powerful. But I don’t know how to measure this feeling precisely.
The tale of Senator Sam and Millionaire Mark is written as if the average Joe trusts more the former and less the latter (please correct me if it wasn’t your intention to make it sound that way). This is still somewhat contrary to my experience, in which people generally distrust both millionaires and senators, hard to tell whom of them more. (This is more of a side note than an objection.)
Anyway, the hypothesis that people support democracy because voting makes them feel powerful even if it doesn’t make any difference is plausible (althought it is certainly not the only plausible explanation). However, doesn’t it contradict the Moldbuggian view, in which voting makes a difference—else he couldn’t assert that the power shifts towards the average Joe because he votes for that. (Disclaimer: I don’t suppose that you are defending Moldbug’s theory, only ask as you seem to have read more Moldbug than me.)
A related anecdote, not sure what to make of that: I am a member of a political party and last week we had a district conference where several functionaries have been elected. Originally it was supposed that three men would compete for the position of a district chairman, but just before the election two of them resigned from their candidatures, leaving the current chairman (in my opinion clearly worst of them three) an easy victory. The district committee had also composed a list of people they nominate for all the posts; the delegates of the conference had no duty to respect this nomination and can vote for whomever they wish (the election was of course secret), but out of about 30 positions all winners were those written on the list, getting from 60% to 80% of votes, no candidate who wasn’t suggested by the committee succeeded. Those people seem to have absolutely no desire for power.
Your anecdote suggests that you missed an opportunity to become a chairman! :D
I also had some small experience with politics, and it also suggests that if a person has a desire for power, they can get it surprisingly easily. A few years ago I was a candidate in a municipal election. I did almost nothing to increase my chances (procrastination, lack of experience, lack of social skills, lack of desire for power...), and yet I received 50% of necessary votes. So I guess if I were just a little more agenty, I could have been a member of the municipal government. It was interesting to see that when the idea of being elected switched from far mode to near mode (“so, can we put your name on the official list of our candidates?”), many previously enthusiastic people became nervous and step back. This suggests there is some juicy low-hanging fruit here. I wonder what happens on the higher levels—whether the competition suddenly becomes tough after the people with no desire for power are removed, or whether it is also surprisingly easy to become e.g. a member of parliament.
I was actually elected a chairman of a local organisation (the lowest level) this spring and that is about as much as I have time for. The district chairman has to invest more time (organising events and kicking procrastinating collaborators’ asses) and money (phone calls, probably also bribes); needless to say, he gets his money back through processes I am not actually willing to participate in. And probability to assume that function for myself would be negligible even if I tried; I wasn’t even elected as a delegate for the regional conference.
Does it seem correct to you because it is the way you would expect the world to be, or because you have good observational data to back it up? I ask mainly because to me it seems a question whose answer is hard to establish; it’s true that in all democratic countries the average Joe gained some additional power in the course of the last century, but 1) it was mainly a result of suffrage extension; after establishing universal suffrage over 18 I don’t see any systematic increase of average Joe’s power, 2) when trying to conclude the direction of a very slow power shift, we need precise ways to define and measure power, unless we want to risk our conclusions being infested by bias and random errors; when asked whether the average José in Spain has more power now than he had fifteen years ago, not only I am unable to answer, but I also lack a clear idea what information to check if I seriously intended to do some research and find it out.
Not only I am not sure whether the average Joe has, on average, more power now than he had ten or twenty years ago (not speaking about countries which went through an abrupt regime change), but I also doubt whether the average Joe actually votes for more (political) power. I see election campaigns putting much emphasis on social security, taxes, crime, healthcare, corruption, even morality and religion in some countries, but comparably few parties promise more power to the citizens. If getting more power was one of the more important goals of the average Joe, why do the parties so rarely include it in their programs?
Another question is whether the average Joe thinks he’s an average Joe—given how self-serving biases work, I doubt it—and if not, why would he vote for more power for someone else?
The average Joe knows that he is not a millionaire, he is not a movie star, and he did not get Nobel price. His biases will probably make him believe that he is between 60th and 70th percentile. He can still vote for less power for the top 10%, or more popularly 1%.
The rest of your questions… I don’t really know. Right at this moment it occurred to me that perhaps the feeling of power is more important that the power itself; most people don’t notice the difference. Saying “senator Sam will reduce crime and give you free healthcare if you vote for him, Joe” makes Joe feel powerful. Saying “milionaire Mark made his money legally, you can’t take his money away and use it as you want, Joe” does not make Joe feel powerful. Even if in reality senator Sam has more money than millionaire Mark, and senator Sam makes some rules that reduce Joe’s freedom, while Mark only provides cheap shiny toys for everyone. Generally, if Joe feels that he can influence the state (even if that influence is mostly illusory), a more powerful state will make Joe feel more powerful. But I don’t know how to measure this feeling precisely.
The tale of Senator Sam and Millionaire Mark is written as if the average Joe trusts more the former and less the latter (please correct me if it wasn’t your intention to make it sound that way). This is still somewhat contrary to my experience, in which people generally distrust both millionaires and senators, hard to tell whom of them more. (This is more of a side note than an objection.)
Anyway, the hypothesis that people support democracy because voting makes them feel powerful even if it doesn’t make any difference is plausible (althought it is certainly not the only plausible explanation). However, doesn’t it contradict the Moldbuggian view, in which voting makes a difference—else he couldn’t assert that the power shifts towards the average Joe because he votes for that. (Disclaimer: I don’t suppose that you are defending Moldbug’s theory, only ask as you seem to have read more Moldbug than me.)
A related anecdote, not sure what to make of that: I am a member of a political party and last week we had a district conference where several functionaries have been elected. Originally it was supposed that three men would compete for the position of a district chairman, but just before the election two of them resigned from their candidatures, leaving the current chairman (in my opinion clearly worst of them three) an easy victory. The district committee had also composed a list of people they nominate for all the posts; the delegates of the conference had no duty to respect this nomination and can vote for whomever they wish (the election was of course secret), but out of about 30 positions all winners were those written on the list, getting from 60% to 80% of votes, no candidate who wasn’t suggested by the committee succeeded. Those people seem to have absolutely no desire for power.
I have read Moldbug recently (this Friday + Saturday), so the ideas are not very much processed in my head yet. Obviously I am shifting from what MM said, through how it makes sense to me, to my explanations which are not really based on MM’s texts. I guess I should stop doing this, because I am basicly defending someone else’s bottom line.
Your anecdote suggests that you missed an opportunity to become a chairman! :D
I also had some small experience with politics, and it also suggests that if a person has a desire for power, they can get it surprisingly easily. A few years ago I was a candidate in a municipal election. I did almost nothing to increase my chances (procrastination, lack of experience, lack of social skills, lack of desire for power...), and yet I received 50% of necessary votes. So I guess if I were just a little more agenty, I could have been a member of the municipal government. It was interesting to see that when the idea of being elected switched from far mode to near mode (“so, can we put your name on the official list of our candidates?”), many previously enthusiastic people became nervous and step back. This suggests there is some juicy low-hanging fruit here. I wonder what happens on the higher levels—whether the competition suddenly becomes tough after the people with no desire for power are removed, or whether it is also surprisingly easy to become e.g. a member of parliament.
I was actually elected a chairman of a local organisation (the lowest level) this spring and that is about as much as I have time for. The district chairman has to invest more time (organising events and kicking procrastinating collaborators’ asses) and money (phone calls, probably also bribes); needless to say, he gets his money back through processes I am not actually willing to participate in. And probability to assume that function for myself would be negligible even if I tried; I wasn’t even elected as a delegate for the regional conference.