This point seems obvious and commonsense, but I have frequently heard good rationalists talk as though the median is the estimate, rather than reasoning with the full uncertainty.
Taking the uncertainty seriously is difficult and stressful. Trying to do that is fighting a small Ugh field or motivated reasoning that tends to generate cope or hopium wishful logic.
This point seems obvious and commonsense, but I have frequently heard good rationalists talk as though the median is the estimate, rather than reasoning with the full uncertainty.
Taking the uncertainty seriously is difficult and stressful. Trying to do that is fighting a small Ugh field or motivated reasoning that tends to generate cope or hopium wishful logic.
Thanks for doing the full careful writeup.