Re criteria for AI being transformative in some sense, it might be useful to look at how historians determine sharp dates for fuzzy-edged eras, which at least sometimes seems to involve identifying key events across multiple domains. E.g. common criteria for the end of the Middle Ages include:
1453: Fall of Constantinople
1455: Gutenberg Bible (first major European printed book)
1492: Columbus’s first voyage
1517: Luther’s 95 theses
Viz. in this case, key political, technological and cultural criteria. (For which the years could be averaged, say, to c.1480.)
Re criteria for AI being transformative in some sense, it might be useful to look at how historians determine sharp dates for fuzzy-edged eras, which at least sometimes seems to involve identifying key events across multiple domains. E.g. common criteria for the end of the Middle Ages include:
1453: Fall of Constantinople
1455: Gutenberg Bible (first major European printed book)
1492: Columbus’s first voyage
1517: Luther’s 95 theses
Viz. in this case, key political, technological and cultural criteria. (For which the years could be averaged, say, to c.1480.)