O.K., here’s a disanalogy that may be important. In the card case, learning that C is the ace of spades should drastically lower our credence of the card being another x of spades. On the other hand, after reading the Zoroastrianism book, we shouldn’t significantly doubt that the other books contain strong evidence, as well, given the known capabilities of the AI.
O.K., here’s a disanalogy that may be important. In the card case, learning that C is the ace of spades should drastically lower our credence of the card being another x of spades. On the other hand, after reading the Zoroastrianism book, we shouldn’t significantly doubt that the other books contain strong evidence, as well, given the known capabilities of the AI.
This isn’t a very formal treatment, though.