The calculation that P2=2*P1 obviously only applies to one game. If you play lots of games sequentially, then the probability increases stack. (Edit: I incorrectly said that the ratio doubles with every game, which is obviously false)
Another way of thinking about this: absent time travel, if you survive a bullet with 1% probability, then after N games your probability of surviving unscathed is 1/2^N, and your total probability of surviving is (101/200)^N. Therefore, given that you survive, your probability of surviving unscathed should be the ratio of these, or (100/101)^N.
(All of this is assuming the random self-consistent time loop interpretation of time travel.)
Hmm, interesting. That would imply that, to a third-party, there’s some random guy who wins 99% of the time at Russian Roulette. At this point, it should legally be considered murder.
Death sentence by plane crash sounds appropriate, in this case.
It is murder, but you’re going to have terrible trouble proving that (especially if he’s careful about documenting how fair the russian roulette is). To avoid murder charges, the hypothetical psychopathic death-immune person can go so far as to arrange a tournament, with 2^n entries for some integer n. In this arrangement, one person must survive every round, and thus it does not look suspicious afterwards that he did survive every round (plus he gets 2^n prizes for going through n rounds).
I’m pretty sure that the russian roulette itself is illegal just about everywhere, though. No matter how it’s done, it’s either murder or assisted suicide.
I’m pretty sure that the russian roulette itself is illegal just about everywhere, though. No matter how it’s done, it’s either murder or assisted suicide.
I would have expected a different label to apply. Neither of those seems accurate. In fact I didn’t think even assisted suicide got called “assisted suicide”.
The calculation that P2=2*P1 obviously only applies to one game. If you play lots of games sequentially, then the probability increases stack. (Edit: I incorrectly said that the ratio doubles with every game, which is obviously false)
Another way of thinking about this: absent time travel, if you survive a bullet with 1% probability, then after N games your probability of surviving unscathed is 1/2^N, and your total probability of surviving is (101/200)^N. Therefore, given that you survive, your probability of surviving unscathed should be the ratio of these, or (100/101)^N.
(All of this is assuming the random self-consistent time loop interpretation of time travel.)
Hmm, interesting. That would imply that, to a third-party, there’s some random guy who wins 99% of the time at Russian Roulette. At this point, it should legally be considered murder.
Death sentence by plane crash sounds appropriate, in this case.
It is murder, but you’re going to have terrible trouble proving that (especially if he’s careful about documenting how fair the russian roulette is). To avoid murder charges, the hypothetical psychopathic death-immune person can go so far as to arrange a tournament, with 2^n entries for some integer n. In this arrangement, one person must survive every round, and thus it does not look suspicious afterwards that he did survive every round (plus he gets 2^n prizes for going through n rounds).
I’m pretty sure that the russian roulette itself is illegal just about everywhere, though. No matter how it’s done, it’s either murder or assisted suicide.
Or only enter other people’s tournaments and have them document their own procedure.
I would have expected a different label to apply. Neither of those seems accurate. In fact I didn’t think even assisted suicide got called “assisted suicide”.