If there is no known way to correct for a bias, the thing to do is to find one. Swerving an arbitrary amount in the right direction will not do—reversed stupidity etc.
I once saw a poster in a chemist’s shop bluntly asserting, “We all eat too much salt.” What was I supposed to do about that? No matter how little salt I take in, or how far I reduce it, that poster would still be telling me the same thing. No, the thing to do, if I think it worth attending to, would be to find out my actual salt intake and what it should actually be. Then “surrender to the truth” and confidently do what the result of that enquiry tells me.
If someone finds it hard to do what they believe that they should and can, then their belief is mistaken, or at least incomplete. They have other reasons for not doing whatever it is, reasons that they are probably unaware of when they merely fret about what they ought to be doing. Compelling oneself is unnecessary when there is nothing to overcome. The root of indecision is conflict, not doubt; irrationality, not rationality.
Here’s a quote about rationality in action from a short story recently mentioned on LW, a classic of SF that everyone with an interest in rationality should read. I find that a more convincing picture than one of supine doubt.
Swerving an arbitrary amount in the right direction will not do—reversed stupidity etc.
Reversing stupidity is not the same thing as swerving an arbitrary amount in the right direction. And the amount is not arbitrary: like most of my belief changes, it is based on my intuition. This post by Robin Hanson springs to mind; see the last sentence before the edit.
Anyway, some positive thoughts I have about myself are obviously unwarranted. I’m currently in the habit of immediately doubting spontaneous positive thoughts (because of what I’ve read about overconfidence), but I’m beginning to suspect that my habit is self-destructive.
If someone finds it hard to do what they believe that they should and can, then their belief is mistaken, or at least incomplete.
Well yes, of course, it’s easier to do something if you believe you can. That’s what I’m talking about—confidence (i.e. believing you can do something) is valuable. If there’s no chance of the thing going wrong, then you’re often best off being overconfident to attain this benefit. That’s pretty much my point right there.
As for your Heinlein quote, I find it completely unrealistic. Either I am vastly overestimating myself as one of Heinlein’s elite, I am a terrible judge of people because I put so many of them into his elite, or Heinlein is wrong. I find it ironic, however, that someone who read the quote would probably be pushed towards the state of mind I am advocating: I’m pretty sure 95% of those who read it put themselves somewhere in the upper echelons, and once in the upper echelons, they are free to estimate their ability highly and succeed as a result.
I’m currently in the habit of immediately doubting spontaneous positive thoughts (because of what I’ve read about overconfidence), but I’m beginning to suspect that my habit is self-destructive.
Are you in the habit of immediately doubting negative thoughts as well? All emotionally-laden spontaneous cognitive content should be suspect.
Also, when you correct an overly positive self-assessment, do you try to describe it as a growth opportunity? This violates no principles of rationality, and seems like it could mitigate the self-destruction. (See fixed vs. growth theories of intelligence.)
I’m currently in the habit of immediately doubting spontaneous positive thoughts (because of what I’ve read about overconfidence), but I’m beginning to suspect that my habit is self-destructive.
Are you in the habit of immediately doubting negative thoughts as well? All emotionally-laden spontaneous cognitive content should be suspect.
Also, when you correct an overly positive self-assessment, do you try to describe it as a growth opportunity? This violates no principles of rationality, and seems like it could mitigate the self-destruction. (See fixed vs. growth theories of intelligence).
If there is no known way to correct for a bias, the thing to do is to find one. Swerving an arbitrary amount in the right direction will not do—reversed stupidity etc.
I once saw a poster in a chemist’s shop bluntly asserting, “We all eat too much salt.” What was I supposed to do about that? No matter how little salt I take in, or how far I reduce it, that poster would still be telling me the same thing. No, the thing to do, if I think it worth attending to, would be to find out my actual salt intake and what it should actually be. Then “surrender to the truth” and confidently do what the result of that enquiry tells me.
If someone finds it hard to do what they believe that they should and can, then their belief is mistaken, or at least incomplete. They have other reasons for not doing whatever it is, reasons that they are probably unaware of when they merely fret about what they ought to be doing. Compelling oneself is unnecessary when there is nothing to overcome. The root of indecision is conflict, not doubt; irrationality, not rationality.
Here’s a quote about rationality in action from a short story recently mentioned on LW, a classic of SF that everyone with an interest in rationality should read. I find that a more convincing picture than one of supine doubt.
Reversing stupidity is not the same thing as swerving an arbitrary amount in the right direction. And the amount is not arbitrary: like most of my belief changes, it is based on my intuition. This post by Robin Hanson springs to mind; see the last sentence before the edit.
Anyway, some positive thoughts I have about myself are obviously unwarranted. I’m currently in the habit of immediately doubting spontaneous positive thoughts (because of what I’ve read about overconfidence), but I’m beginning to suspect that my habit is self-destructive.
Well yes, of course, it’s easier to do something if you believe you can. That’s what I’m talking about—confidence (i.e. believing you can do something) is valuable. If there’s no chance of the thing going wrong, then you’re often best off being overconfident to attain this benefit. That’s pretty much my point right there.
As for your Heinlein quote, I find it completely unrealistic. Either I am vastly overestimating myself as one of Heinlein’s elite, I am a terrible judge of people because I put so many of them into his elite, or Heinlein is wrong. I find it ironic, however, that someone who read the quote would probably be pushed towards the state of mind I am advocating: I’m pretty sure 95% of those who read it put themselves somewhere in the upper echelons, and once in the upper echelons, they are free to estimate their ability highly and succeed as a result.
Are you in the habit of immediately doubting negative thoughts as well? All emotionally-laden spontaneous cognitive content should be suspect.
Also, when you correct an overly positive self-assessment, do you try to describe it as a growth opportunity? This violates no principles of rationality, and seems like it could mitigate the self-destruction. (See fixed vs. growth theories of intelligence.)
Are you in the habit of immediately doubting negative thoughts as well? All emotionally-laden spontaneous cognitive content should be suspect.
Also, when you correct an overly positive self-assessment, do you try to describe it as a growth opportunity? This violates no principles of rationality, and seems like it could mitigate the self-destruction. (See fixed vs. growth theories of intelligence).