Note that it you convert only half the car factories, you can still produce 0.5 billion robots per year, so it doesn’t change the basics picture that much. (It’s all order of magnitude stuff.)
I talk a little about some other estimates—a standard trajectory would be 20-30 years on the long end. ASI enabled could be even faster than 5yr. I agree it would be nice to flesh these out more.
Also agree it would be good to figure out the conversion efficiency better. One factor on the other side is robots involve lighter parts, which apparently makes it easier. Ideally we’d also check for other input factors that could bottleneck production -eg lithium for batteries at over 100m.
Thanks, and fair points!
Note that it you convert only half the car factories, you can still produce 0.5 billion robots per year, so it doesn’t change the basics picture that much. (It’s all order of magnitude stuff.)
I talk a little about some other estimates—a standard trajectory would be 20-30 years on the long end. ASI enabled could be even faster than 5yr. I agree it would be nice to flesh these out more.
Also agree it would be good to figure out the conversion efficiency better. One factor on the other side is robots involve lighter parts, which apparently makes it easier. Ideally we’d also check for other input factors that could bottleneck production -eg lithium for batteries at over 100m.