Upon suddenly discovering that the whole world looks different this morning than it did last night is the rational belief “I guess I was deluded for my whole life up to this point” or “I guess I’m deluded now”?
Why completely leave out the possibility that you aren’t deluded at all? Depending on just what kind of ‘different’ you wake up in that is a distinct possibility.
I would, by the way, start with a high prior for ‘deluded now’ which would be altered one way or the other by extensive reality testing. I experience that in dreams all the time. I know from personal experience it is easier for me to be confused about the transient sensory experience of the present than the broad structure of all my memories. Results may vary somewhat.
Good point, in the case of waking up in a logically possible world, remembering a previous logically possible world, there is a non-zero possibility that you’ve actually gone from one to the other somehow. How low the probability is depends on the nature of the differences
I was too caught up in the case of waking up in a world where the world you remember is logically impossible.
Good point, in the case of waking up in a logically possible world, remembering a previous logically possible world, there is a non-zero possibility that you’ve actually gone from one to the other somehow. How low the probability is depends on the nature of the differences
Exactly. And with slightly different wording a world in which it seems like you have changed from one logical world to another is itself a just a logically possible world.
I was too caught up in the case of waking up in a world where the world you remember is logically impossible.
That would be awkward! It would require an awful lot of reality testing on the question of just how logically impossible things were. Even after that your confidence in just about anything would be fubared.
Why completely leave out the possibility that you aren’t deluded at all? Depending on just what kind of ‘different’ you wake up in that is a distinct possibility.
I would, by the way, start with a high prior for ‘deluded now’ which would be altered one way or the other by extensive reality testing. I experience that in dreams all the time. I know from personal experience it is easier for me to be confused about the transient sensory experience of the present than the broad structure of all my memories. Results may vary somewhat.
Good point, in the case of waking up in a logically possible world, remembering a previous logically possible world, there is a non-zero possibility that you’ve actually gone from one to the other somehow. How low the probability is depends on the nature of the differences
I was too caught up in the case of waking up in a world where the world you remember is logically impossible.
Exactly. And with slightly different wording a world in which it seems like you have changed from one logical world to another is itself a just a logically possible world.
That would be awkward! It would require an awful lot of reality testing on the question of just how logically impossible things were. Even after that your confidence in just about anything would be fubared.