Many things can be done more effectively under fast ~ASI guidance through headset w/ video.
The show Pluribus gives some useful intuitions at how fast & effective superhumanly coordinated human work can be. It’s more bullish in some ways (a human won’t acquire technical know that requires practice as fast) and bearish in others (they have the same total amount of compute, while we’d have much more, and be innovating on methods of work much faster).
A normal human 8h work day has huge amounts of waste whether not doing much, or not useful things.
You can increase the efficiency of how much they work (not blocked on coordination problems), how well they work (continuous coaching so ~everyone reaches what is current top 1%, tho domain dependant), how useful what they work on is (better management, priorisation).
Of these factors, I would guess that better management/coordination is the main one.
If you isolated just one human within a factory, the ASI might make them somewhat more efficient, but they’ll be bottlenecked by machinery. Maybe they increase machinery throughput 1.5 overall with better prep and offloading, better maintenance, no errors. If the whole factory is ASI guided, could be much more, but again there are bottlenecks on which machines it has where.
The really fast unlocks that full cheap ASI everywhere could allow are:
- the equivalent of ~unlimited financing. You already know the investment will be good and it will be worth following the plan. You can motivate people to work more now, because soon greater returns. - ~perfect allocation of labor to critical paths - perfect usage of all existing infrastructure— redirect flow of resources to most valuable recursively building industry
I thus think that if from one day to the next, full cheap aligned ASI everywhere popped up (plus video equipped headsets, and network connectivity to support it), we could in fact much more than double real GDP in a year. This is without surprising technological innovation, and far from fast&useful self replicator, whether “nanobots” or insect size artifical life w/ hivemind connection.
-- Would this actually happen if we had cheap aligned ASI? Would everyone just go along and do what the ASI says?
I guess mostly yes. Almost all humans don’t want to suffer of disease, most don’t want to die soon, most would love better comfort and experiences. The ASI thus has good things to offer, not participating would be counterproductive.
-- so will any of this actually happen?
I think not, because I think we’ll have increasingly AGI and increasingly ASI and that will take a bunch of time (say, a few years during RSI intelligence explosion). The scenarios we’ll go through will be more continuous than that one (but maybe very fast nonetheless). Even when we have ASIs, I don’t expect we’ll have the compute to run one ASI per human, nor on top of that do much extra coordination work. So we’ll have increasing levels of coordination over time, that will have to be triaged to different places. I guess we won’t get intelligence too cheap to meter before being well into having billions of ASIs. (This could be wrong if algorithmic progress has no bounds, but that’d be very weird)
Many things can be done more effectively under fast ~ASI guidance through headset w/ video.
The show Pluribus gives some useful intuitions at how fast & effective superhumanly coordinated human work can be. It’s more bullish in some ways (a human won’t acquire technical know that requires practice as fast) and bearish in others (they have the same total amount of compute, while we’d have much more, and be innovating on methods of work much faster).
A normal human 8h work day has huge amounts of waste whether not doing much, or not useful things.
You can increase the efficiency of how much they work (not blocked on coordination problems), how well they work (continuous coaching so ~everyone reaches what is current top 1%, tho domain dependant), how useful what they work on is (better management, priorisation).
Of these factors, I would guess that better management/coordination is the main one.
If you isolated just one human within a factory, the ASI might make them somewhat more efficient, but they’ll be bottlenecked by machinery. Maybe they increase machinery throughput 1.5 overall with better prep and offloading, better maintenance, no errors. If the whole factory is ASI guided, could be much more, but again there are bottlenecks on which machines it has where.
The really fast unlocks that full cheap ASI everywhere could allow are:
- the equivalent of ~unlimited financing. You already know the investment will be good and it will be worth following the plan. You can motivate people to work more now, because soon greater returns.
- ~perfect allocation of labor to critical paths
- perfect usage of all existing infrastructure—
redirect flow of resources to most valuable recursively building industry
I thus think that if from one day to the next, full cheap aligned ASI everywhere popped up (plus video equipped headsets, and network connectivity to support it), we could in fact much more than double real GDP in a year. This is without surprising technological innovation, and far from fast&useful self replicator, whether “nanobots” or insect size artifical life w/ hivemind connection.
-- Would this actually happen if we had cheap aligned ASI? Would everyone just go along and do what the ASI says?
I guess mostly yes. Almost all humans don’t want to suffer of disease, most don’t want to die soon, most would love better comfort and experiences. The ASI thus has good things to offer, not participating would be counterproductive.
-- so will any of this actually happen?
I think not, because I think we’ll have increasingly AGI and increasingly ASI and that will take a bunch of time (say, a few years during RSI intelligence explosion). The scenarios we’ll go through will be more continuous than that one (but maybe very fast nonetheless). Even when we have ASIs, I don’t expect we’ll have the compute to run one ASI per human, nor on top of that do much extra coordination work. So we’ll have increasing levels of coordination over time, that will have to be triaged to different places. I guess we won’t get intelligence too cheap to meter before being well into having billions of ASIs. (This could be wrong if algorithmic progress has no bounds, but that’d be very weird)