I disagree with some of the numbers, but overall quite like this way of framing the situation. I think having three divisions of strategy discussion makes sense here 1-5 years, 5-10 years, 10-20 years. Also, there is another important axis: are we compute/​data limited and big labs are the main probability of origin or can a lucky small research group make a dramatic breakthrough?
I think so the cases and timelines I mention here are plausible enough to be worth planning for.
I disagree with some of the numbers, but overall quite like this way of framing the situation. I think having three divisions of strategy discussion makes sense here 1-5 years, 5-10 years, 10-20 years. Also, there is another important axis: are we compute/​data limited and big labs are the main probability of origin or can a lucky small research group make a dramatic breakthrough? I think so the cases and timelines I mention here are plausible enough to be worth planning for.