I think a lot about dice and cards, especially because I have the most trouble with probabilities that are <5 percent.
‘Number of consecutive perfect draws’ in magic is very useful for me. Eg ‘x consecutive one of one draws‘ in a draft is 1/~(20-30)^x. Imprecise, but gives me any handle at all for pretty slim odds.
Similarly, dice rolls. # of consecutive critical successes, or # of critical successes among n attempts, or ‘critical success * rolling n on an additional n sided die’.
I’ve played a lot of dice-heavy games and used dice to help resolve indecision since I was ~11, but have only started taking putting non-bullshit probabilities on things as a serious skill very recently (maybe a year).
I think a lot about dice and cards, especially because I have the most trouble with probabilities that are <5 percent.
‘Number of consecutive perfect draws’ in magic is very useful for me. Eg ‘x consecutive one of one draws‘ in a draft is 1/~(20-30)^x. Imprecise, but gives me any handle at all for pretty slim odds.
Similarly, dice rolls. # of consecutive critical successes, or # of critical successes among n attempts, or ‘critical success * rolling n on an additional n sided die’.
I’ve played a lot of dice-heavy games and used dice to help resolve indecision since I was ~11, but have only started taking putting non-bullshit probabilities on things as a serious skill very recently (maybe a year).