Not making a real money bet because it seems difficult to operationalize / flush out the details enough that I would think I have enough edge. People imo will correctly give a more conservative number if they think the question is realistic, and they will give closer to 50% if they think it is an idealized scenario where all they have is money. But I will say 30% of people would give >=50% if they understand the scenario as mathematical.
Also, I was saying something weaker. I disagreed on “This strikes most people as being insanely agressive”. I am saying that people would, after being told the correct answer (i.e. in retrospect), think/tell you that the mathematically correct answer is not insanely aggressive. Even if 50% is higher than what they said would personally bet, I think most people would not say and would disagree that it is insanely aggressive.
I think if you start asking people this question, even educated people, you’ll be supprised!
While the scenario is idalized in the sense of you can know the payoffs and odds with certianty—there’s no need to stipulate “all they have is money”—they can have a complex utility function involving a thousand inputs, as long as the only input that changes based on the bet they make is money.
Not making a real money bet because it seems difficult to operationalize / flush out the details enough that I would think I have enough edge. People imo will correctly give a more conservative number if they think the question is realistic, and they will give closer to 50% if they think it is an idealized scenario where all they have is money. But I will say 30% of people would give >=50% if they understand the scenario as mathematical.
Also, I was saying something weaker. I disagreed on “This strikes most people as being insanely agressive”. I am saying that people would, after being told the correct answer (i.e. in retrospect), think/tell you that the mathematically correct answer is not insanely aggressive. Even if 50% is higher than what they said would personally bet, I think most people would not say and would disagree that it is insanely aggressive.
I think if you start asking people this question, even educated people, you’ll be supprised!
While the scenario is idalized in the sense of you can know the payoffs and odds with certianty—there’s no need to stipulate “all they have is money”—they can have a complex utility function involving a thousand inputs, as long as the only input that changes based on the bet they make is money.
Yeah, I’m thinking about stuff like “do I sell my house and my two dogs to make this bet?”