I believe you care about people and that you have good intentions. My guess would be that we share most of our values.
However, I find it hard to hear what you’re saying, because, from my perspective, you’re making several confident-sounding, strong, sweeping claims. And then I’m unsure whether to take those literally, or rather to take them as gestures.
If I take your claims as mere gestures at some important realities and values, I can make reasonable-seeming guesses at what you’re trying to get at. But then, I’m worried I’m missing you (because I’m autocorrecting your actual words in my head). And also, I’m worried that I don’t actually know what you mean, because you spoke in gestures rather than saying realistic claims that you’re fairly confident in, or something. And further, when I’m “autocorrecting”, I’m generally imagining scenarios that are far less bad than your language seems to suggest you’re imagining, and that makes me worried that I’m missing what you’re trying to communicate.
On the other hand, if I take your statements literally, they seem false. That is, they seem like very strong sweeping claims, which are quite at odds with how I think the world works.
Given that dichotomy, it feels like I could better understand what you’re trying to communicate to me in a live conversation. In that context, we could more quickly home in on what you’re imagining or claiming, what you expect to happen, what’s good and bad about that from your perspective, what I already agree with, what I’m failing to see, etc.
My offer for a podcast conversation still stands. I think it could be productive and good for the world according to both of us.
To give some examples of the sweeping claims that seem confusing / incorrect to me:
For example, you wrote:
There is no freedom to make your child White, cisgender male, straight, neurotypical, tall, strong, blonde, blue-eyed, beautiful, and intelligent. (And do you seriously deny that the technology would be used for that purpose? Indeed, would be MOSTLY used for that purpose?)
This phrasing makes it sound like you’re very confident, and think I should be very confident, that reprogenetics would be mostly used for some X. I’m genuinely not sure what is the X that you mean. For example, you could mean “that’s most of the impact”, or “most people would prioritize this”, or “most people wouldn’t use it for other things”, or “most people would use it for this in addition to other things”. But probably yes I largely deny that, and where I don’t deny that I think it’s probably not that bad.
I think by far the biggest use, in most senses, will be decreasing risks of various diseases and mental illnesses. Even given the stigma around reprogenetics, it seems there is strong and widespread support for reprogenetics used for that purpose. This sample of 1,000 Australians (cited by Charlie Sanders in another comment), on a scale from strong disagree = 1 to strong agree = 4, supports germline modification to improve health (3.15) but opposes it for changing appearance (2). See this Pew poll:
In this sample of 1,000 Americans, most people don’t agree with allowing screening for sex, appearance, or sexual orientation:
So like, if there’s a strong correlation between not wanting to allow it and not wanting to use it yourself, then by default these uses you listed aren’t most of the uses.
(I think this paper suggests that (in their sample) appearance matters for sperm donor selection, but much less than age or education, but I’m not sure: https://gwern.net/doc/genetics/selection/artificial/2016-whyte.pdf. Note also that many recipients would use some appearance criterion other than the ones you listed, e.g. matching their partner’s appearance.)
After the case is made for allowing it, intelligence may be a somewhat common use case. I think that’s probably a good thing, if we’re making evaluations like this.
Regarding strength, IDK if it would be very common, but as DaemonicSigil asked, what’s the problem with people giving their children strength? Seems fine & good, within safe bounds.
If by “White” you mean lighter-skinned, this is plausible. At least, it’s plausible by default. There is widespread use of skin lighteners, e.g. something like 1⁄4 of university students in a multi-country sample used them:
I’m not so clear on the other appearance features you mentioned. Maybe your next best example would be hair straightness, where Black women experience discrimination because curly hair is considered “unprofessional” etc. Lots of people dye their hair, though IDK the motivations. I don’t think wearing blue contact lenses is super common, IDK.
In summary, I do not buy your statement that those traits you listed are “most” of the likely uses.
You wrote:
can design their children to spec
As DaemonicSigil pointed out, this is a mischaracterization of the situation for traits that
are polygenic, and/or
have a significant environmental component.
You can shift the mean, but you can’t control the variance very much. Such traits include height, strength, sexual orientation, neurodivergence, beauty, and intelligence. Some traits are rare, such as transness; if they’re also polygenic, they probably can’t be genetically characterized much and can’t be genomically vectored much. For this reason, parents who use reprogenetics must remain firmly open to the unbidden.
It is a world in which every iota of social progress we have made in reducing racism, sexism, homophobia, ableism, and every other form of bigotry immediately evaporates,
This seems very very implausible as stated.
This is a world in which there is a competitive pressure to eliminate all forms of deviance, ultimately most forms of INDIVIDUALITY,
This seems quite implausible. Even in some dystopian homogenized world, you still need a wide variety of kinds of people. Diversity is in fact a strength. Like, there are all sorts of economic and social niches, where by “niche” here I don’t mean “comfortable place you can survive in” but rather “a strong market demand for some function, best performed by some specific differentiated type of person”.
Again, I can start imagining what you actually mean, and try to think of more realistic versions of what you’re gesturing at. But it’s hard to do that guesswork, so it’s hard to understand what you’re trying to tell me when you’re expressing things in this way.
because any less than making your child White, cisgender male, straight, neurotypical, tall, strong, blonde, blue-eyed, beautiful, and intelligent will be seen at best as you being too poor to do the right thing and at worst as you being utterly irresponsible parents who would dare risk allowing their child to be queer or deaf or short or asymmetrical.
This just doesn’t line up with how people treat parents in anything I’ve ever seen. (Maybe you’re talking about a long-run equilibrium?)
conversion into a different SPECIES,
This is scarcely possible using reprogenetics any time soon. This would involve some incredibly strong barriers against reproduction across these class boundaries, and/or enough time (many generations) for the reproductive biology to drift. I think this basically hasn’t ever happened in human history. (There have been a few very strong reproductive barriers, such as literal remote islands, and jāti endogamy in India is pretty extreme I think. But that doesn’t produce speciation, whether biological or behavioral—if the social or geographic barriers came down, people would reproduce across those group lines.) (I guess you mean something other than literal speciation?)
I believe you care about people and that you have good intentions. My guess would be that we share most of our values.
However, I find it hard to hear what you’re saying, because, from my perspective, you’re making several confident-sounding, strong, sweeping claims. And then I’m unsure whether to take those literally, or rather to take them as gestures.
If I take your claims as mere gestures at some important realities and values, I can make reasonable-seeming guesses at what you’re trying to get at. But then, I’m worried I’m missing you (because I’m autocorrecting your actual words in my head). And also, I’m worried that I don’t actually know what you mean, because you spoke in gestures rather than saying realistic claims that you’re fairly confident in, or something. And further, when I’m “autocorrecting”, I’m generally imagining scenarios that are far less bad than your language seems to suggest you’re imagining, and that makes me worried that I’m missing what you’re trying to communicate.
On the other hand, if I take your statements literally, they seem false. That is, they seem like very strong sweeping claims, which are quite at odds with how I think the world works.
Given that dichotomy, it feels like I could better understand what you’re trying to communicate to me in a live conversation. In that context, we could more quickly home in on what you’re imagining or claiming, what you expect to happen, what’s good and bad about that from your perspective, what I already agree with, what I’m failing to see, etc.
My offer for a podcast conversation still stands. I think it could be productive and good for the world according to both of us.
To give some examples of the sweeping claims that seem confusing / incorrect to me:
For example, you wrote:
This phrasing makes it sound like you’re very confident, and think I should be very confident, that reprogenetics would be mostly used for some X. I’m genuinely not sure what is the X that you mean. For example, you could mean “that’s most of the impact”, or “most people would prioritize this”, or “most people wouldn’t use it for other things”, or “most people would use it for this in addition to other things”. But probably yes I largely deny that, and where I don’t deny that I think it’s probably not that bad.
I think by far the biggest use, in most senses, will be decreasing risks of various diseases and mental illnesses. Even given the stigma around reprogenetics, it seems there is strong and widespread support for reprogenetics used for that purpose. This sample of 1,000 Australians (cited by Charlie Sanders in another comment), on a scale from strong disagree = 1 to strong agree = 4, supports germline modification to improve health (3.15) but opposes it for changing appearance (2). See this Pew poll:
In this sample of 1,000 Americans, most people don’t agree with allowing screening for sex, appearance, or sexual orientation:
So like, if there’s a strong correlation between not wanting to allow it and not wanting to use it yourself, then by default these uses you listed aren’t most of the uses.
(I think this paper suggests that (in their sample) appearance matters for sperm donor selection, but much less than age or education, but I’m not sure: https://gwern.net/doc/genetics/selection/artificial/2016-whyte.pdf. Note also that many recipients would use some appearance criterion other than the ones you listed, e.g. matching their partner’s appearance.)
After the case is made for allowing it, intelligence may be a somewhat common use case. I think that’s probably a good thing, if we’re making evaluations like this.
Regarding strength, IDK if it would be very common, but as DaemonicSigil asked, what’s the problem with people giving their children strength? Seems fine & good, within safe bounds.
If by “White” you mean lighter-skinned, this is plausible. At least, it’s plausible by default. There is widespread use of skin lighteners, e.g. something like 1⁄4 of university students in a multi-country sample used them:
In a sample of South Asian Americans, parent pressure increased use and time in the US slightly decreased use (https://derma.jmir.org/2023/1/e49068).
I’m not so clear on the other appearance features you mentioned. Maybe your next best example would be hair straightness, where Black women experience discrimination because curly hair is considered “unprofessional” etc. Lots of people dye their hair, though IDK the motivations. I don’t think wearing blue contact lenses is super common, IDK.
In summary, I do not buy your statement that those traits you listed are “most” of the likely uses.
You wrote:
As DaemonicSigil pointed out, this is a mischaracterization of the situation for traits that
are polygenic, and/or
have a significant environmental component.
You can shift the mean, but you can’t control the variance very much. Such traits include height, strength, sexual orientation, neurodivergence, beauty, and intelligence. Some traits are rare, such as transness; if they’re also polygenic, they probably can’t be genetically characterized much and can’t be genomically vectored much. For this reason, parents who use reprogenetics must remain firmly open to the unbidden.
This seems very very implausible as stated.
This seems quite implausible. Even in some dystopian homogenized world, you still need a wide variety of kinds of people. Diversity is in fact a strength. Like, there are all sorts of economic and social niches, where by “niche” here I don’t mean “comfortable place you can survive in” but rather “a strong market demand for some function, best performed by some specific differentiated type of person”.
Again, I can start imagining what you actually mean, and try to think of more realistic versions of what you’re gesturing at. But it’s hard to do that guesswork, so it’s hard to understand what you’re trying to tell me when you’re expressing things in this way.
This just doesn’t line up with how people treat parents in anything I’ve ever seen. (Maybe you’re talking about a long-run equilibrium?)
This is scarcely possible using reprogenetics any time soon. This would involve some incredibly strong barriers against reproduction across these class boundaries, and/or enough time (many generations) for the reproductive biology to drift. I think this basically hasn’t ever happened in human history. (There have been a few very strong reproductive barriers, such as literal remote islands, and jāti endogamy in India is pretty extreme I think. But that doesn’t produce speciation, whether biological or behavioral—if the social or geographic barriers came down, people would reproduce across those group lines.) (I guess you mean something other than literal speciation?)