So the Great Filter must predate us, unless AI is hard.
There’s a 3rd possibility: AI is not super hard, say 50 yrs away, but species tend to get filtered when they are right on the verge of developing AI. Which points to human extinction in the next 50 years or so.
This seems a little unlikely. A filter that only appeared on the verge of AI would likely be something technology-related. But different civs explore the tech tree differently. This only feels like a strong filter if the destructive tech was directly before superintelligence on the tree. Perhaps AI-powered weapons? Or something related to the Internet?
I wish I could speak to an expert historian on how frequently we see lopsided technology trees in the historical record. But it certainly seems like we could use an unreasonable amount of caution prior to developing any technology that creates a clear path to space colonization. If millions before us were not able to escape the maze alive, perhaps every obvious exit route should be assumed to contain a deadly trap.
There’s a 3rd possibility: AI is not super hard, say 50 yrs away, but species tend to get filtered when they are right on the verge of developing AI. Which points to human extinction in the next 50 years or so.
This seems a little unlikely. A filter that only appeared on the verge of AI would likely be something technology-related. But different civs explore the tech tree differently. This only feels like a strong filter if the destructive tech was directly before superintelligence on the tree. Perhaps AI-powered weapons? Or something related to the Internet?
I wish I could speak to an expert historian on how frequently we see lopsided technology trees in the historical record. But it certainly seems like we could use an unreasonable amount of caution prior to developing any technology that creates a clear path to space colonization. If millions before us were not able to escape the maze alive, perhaps every obvious exit route should be assumed to contain a deadly trap.
But we also have to consider whether it’s a true exit route, which would avoid the deadly traps that we don’t understand.