Anthropic: “we expect powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027… Intellectual capabilities matching or exceeding that of Nobel Prize winners across most disciplines… The ability to navigate all interfaces available to a human doing digital work today… The ability to autonomously reason through complex tasks over extended periods—hours, days, or even weeks… The ability to interface with the physical world”
This is kind of annoyingly phrased, because it sounds like they’re saying that AIs will be making Nobel Prize-level discoveries by late 2026 or early 2027. But in fact that’s not what they’re saying. They’re only claiming that AIs will be capable of doing tasks that Nobel Prize winners could do in hours or days (or maybe even weeks) -- whereas Nobel Prize-level discoveries take years.
This is kind of annoyingly phrased, because it sounds like they’re saying that AIs will be making Nobel Prize-level discoveries by late 2026 or early 2027. But in fact that’s not what they’re saying. They’re only claiming that AIs will be capable of doing tasks that Nobel Prize winners could do in hours or days (or maybe even weeks) -- whereas Nobel Prize-level discoveries take years.