This is a helpful exercise and it’s always nice to have more than one wording available that tries to bridge the inferential distance.
One thing you might want to take a second look at is the first place you use the metaphor of sliding the probability—most likely you are thinking of the diagrams later in the piece, and while by the time you get to them, they’re helpful, I’m not sure the description initially given is sufficient to make it more obvious what’s really going on. What am I supposed to think “slide” means at this point in the piece?
This is a helpful exercise and it’s always nice to have more than one wording available that tries to bridge the inferential distance.
One thing you might want to take a second look at is the first place you use the metaphor of sliding the probability—most likely you are thinking of the diagrams later in the piece, and while by the time you get to them, they’re helpful, I’m not sure the description initially given is sufficient to make it more obvious what’s really going on. What am I supposed to think “slide” means at this point in the piece?