Improving your beliefs may not be the best way to become successful, but my goal isn’t increasing the number of successful people in the world. What I care about (tautologically) are my goals, and those are well served by convincing intelligent people who care about the world that having correct beliefs is essential to doing good. The efficient market hypothesis has nothing to say about this assertion. Beliefs that have “no instrumental implications” are important to understanding the long-term consequences of our actions. Of course now I am relying on something more than the self-interest and intelligence of the audience, and the actual motive power of abstract morality is up to debate (and perhaps a more important thing to be
attempting to spread).
I don’t give this issue much time because I judged that most people on LW wouldn’t disagree—elaborating would be preaching to the choir. I agree it deserves discussion.
That said, I believe your applications of the efficient market hypothesis are generally not completely accurate. For example: people make a great deal of money by doing something obvious which anyone could do. Why? Being smart and having initiative is one sort of advantage, and the efficient market hypothesis says nothing about a rationalist’s ability to turn that advantage into profit.
Improving your beliefs may not be the best way to become successful, but my goal isn’t increasing the number of successful people in the world. What I care about (tautologically) are my goals, and those are well served by convincing intelligent people who care about the world that having correct beliefs is essential to doing good. The efficient market hypothesis has nothing to say about this assertion. Beliefs that have “no instrumental implications” are important to understanding the long-term consequences of our actions. Of course now I am relying on something more than the self-interest and intelligence of the audience, and the actual motive power of abstract morality is up to debate (and perhaps a more important thing to be attempting to spread).
I don’t give this issue much time because I judged that most people on LW wouldn’t disagree—elaborating would be preaching to the choir. I agree it deserves discussion.
That said, I believe your applications of the efficient market hypothesis are generally not completely accurate. For example: people make a great deal of money by doing something obvious which anyone could do. Why? Being smart and having initiative is one sort of advantage, and the efficient market hypothesis says nothing about a rationalist’s ability to turn that advantage into profit.