First of all, for clarity, my imaginary politician was saying “I’ll advocate (higher taxes to discourage the burning of fossil fuels)” rather than “I’ll advocate higher taxes) to discourage the burning of fossil fuels”. That is, I wasn’t meaning to presuppose that the politician’s real purpose was as stated.
to get more revenue [...] channel to my cronies and use to bribe voters
OK, so if this sort of thing is (say) 50% of why those politicians who say we should take action to reduce or mitigate anthropomorphic climate change, then we should expect that (if politicians are perfectly Machiavellian and totally indifferent to what’s true and what’s beneficial) 50% of politicians who say that either are closely associated with “green energy” companies and the like, or else represent voters a substantial fraction of whom stand to benefit from “green energy” initiatives. If politicians are actually less than perfectly Machiavellian, and temper their pursuit of self-interest with occasional consideration of what would actually be best for their country and what the evidence actually says, then that figure of 50% needs to be correspondingly higher.
We should also, if politicians are that Machiavellian, expect to find that any politician who, e.g., represents a substantial number of voters who could be bribed in this way will advocate action against climate change.
I haven’t looked at the statistics, so my opinion isn’t worth much at present, but I don’t get the impression that things are anywhere near so clear-cut. Do you have data?
Just out of curiosity: What is your opinion about the motivation of politicians who say we shouldn’t take much action against anthropogenic climate change? If we discount the stated opinions of politicians on both sides, and of lobbyists for, e.g., solar panel fitters and oil companies, what opinions do you expect to find remaining?
It seems to me that this sort of argument constitutes a fully general justification for ignoring what politicians say. Which, actually, sounds on the whole like a pretty good idea.
I don’t get the impression that things are anywhere near so clear-cut
Things, of course, are not clear-cut at all because in reality you have a very complex network of incentives, counter-incentives, PR considerations, estimates and mis-estimates, the traditional bungling, etc. etc.
What is your opinion about the motivation of politicians who say we shouldn’t take much action against anthropogenic climate change?
The same :-)
what opinions do you expect to find remaining?
Well, the whole spectrum from “this is bollocks!” to “humanity’s survival is at stake!”, but probably dominated by “I dunno” :-D
First of all, for clarity, my imaginary politician was saying “I’ll advocate (higher taxes to discourage the burning of fossil fuels)” rather than “I’ll advocate higher taxes) to discourage the burning of fossil fuels”. That is, I wasn’t meaning to presuppose that the politician’s real purpose was as stated.
OK, so if this sort of thing is (say) 50% of why those politicians who say we should take action to reduce or mitigate anthropomorphic climate change, then we should expect that (if politicians are perfectly Machiavellian and totally indifferent to what’s true and what’s beneficial) 50% of politicians who say that either are closely associated with “green energy” companies and the like, or else represent voters a substantial fraction of whom stand to benefit from “green energy” initiatives. If politicians are actually less than perfectly Machiavellian, and temper their pursuit of self-interest with occasional consideration of what would actually be best for their country and what the evidence actually says, then that figure of 50% needs to be correspondingly higher.
We should also, if politicians are that Machiavellian, expect to find that any politician who, e.g., represents a substantial number of voters who could be bribed in this way will advocate action against climate change.
I haven’t looked at the statistics, so my opinion isn’t worth much at present, but I don’t get the impression that things are anywhere near so clear-cut. Do you have data?
Just out of curiosity: What is your opinion about the motivation of politicians who say we shouldn’t take much action against anthropogenic climate change? If we discount the stated opinions of politicians on both sides, and of lobbyists for, e.g., solar panel fitters and oil companies, what opinions do you expect to find remaining?
It seems to me that this sort of argument constitutes a fully general justification for ignoring what politicians say. Which, actually, sounds on the whole like a pretty good idea.
Things, of course, are not clear-cut at all because in reality you have a very complex network of incentives, counter-incentives, PR considerations, estimates and mis-estimates, the traditional bungling, etc. etc.
The same :-)
Well, the whole spectrum from “this is bollocks!” to “humanity’s survival is at stake!”, but probably dominated by “I dunno” :-D