Eliezer said in a speech at the Singularity Summit that he’s agnostic about whether technological change is accelerating, and mentions Michael Vassar and Peter Thiel as skeptical.
This is subject to memory, but I think the point under contention is whether or not technological change is exponentially accelerating. It seems impossible to contest that technological change is accelerating,* but parabolic and exponential trajectories make incredibly different predictions ~20 years out.
*Assuming a long timescale, here. It might be possible to contest for short timescales, but that seems only doable because at short timescales you can lose the signal in the noise.
This is subject to memory, but I think the point under contention is whether or not technological change is exponentially accelerating. It seems impossible to contest that technological change is accelerating,* but parabolic and exponential trajectories make incredibly different predictions ~20 years out.
*Assuming a long timescale, here. It might be possible to contest for short timescales, but that seems only doable because at short timescales you can lose the signal in the noise.