I don’t see this a problem of simple trend prediction (which, as Carl pointed out, is often better than experts). Instead I see it as an error bar failure—predicting the dow would reach 36,000 in 1999 was perfectly reasonable. Confidently predicting the Dow would reach 36,000 was ridiculous.
I don’t see this a problem of simple trend prediction (which, as Carl pointed out, is often better than experts). Instead I see it as an error bar failure—predicting the dow would reach 36,000 in 1999 was perfectly reasonable. Confidently predicting the Dow would reach 36,000 was ridiculous.