If the Flynn Effect continues, we won’t have to resort to genetic manipulation. A future population will have an IQ of 140 by our standards automatically.
It sounds more that we are getting better at “leaving no child behind” (ie better and longer average schooling) coupled with reducing a lot of the effects that cause retardation (illness, drinking during pregnancy etc). Both of these factors will raise the average but don’t actually significantly increase intelligence at the top end.
So, unfortunately, like all hockey-stick projections, it’ll probably come to a natural levelling off.
While “if something cannot go on forever, it will stop” (Stein’s law), it might stop much later than you expected/after screwing everything up. (But in the case of the Flynn effect this is backwards: it’s not like we want it to stop soon.)
If the Flynn Effect continues, we won’t have to resort to genetic manipulation. A future population will have an IQ of 140 by our standards automatically.
From my ahem… vast research (on the wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect), it seems as though the Flynn effect mainly occurs at the lower end of the scale.
It sounds more that we are getting better at “leaving no child behind” (ie better and longer average schooling) coupled with reducing a lot of the effects that cause retardation (illness, drinking during pregnancy etc). Both of these factors will raise the average but don’t actually significantly increase intelligence at the top end.
So, unfortunately, like all hockey-stick projections, it’ll probably come to a natural levelling off.
You think global warming is going to level off before Bangladesh is underwater? I don’t.
relevance?
While “if something cannot go on forever, it will stop” (Stein’s law), it might stop much later than you expected/after screwing everything up. (But in the case of the Flynn effect this is backwards: it’s not like we want it to stop soon.)