What if we have n observations where P( observation | ~UAP ) through investigation has been found to be 0 and, while hard to determine, P( observation | UAP ) is reasonably said to be strictly greater than 0.
Then P(UAP) will go towards 1, monotonously, as the number of observations increases, right?
What if we have n observations where P( observation | ~UAP ) through investigation has been found to be 0
Um, I don’t think you understand what it means for P( observation | ~UAP ) to equal 0. If P( observation | ~UAP ) were really 0, then a single such observation would be enough to comclude the P(UAP) is 1.
So how should one interpret findings like this:
“We investigated n observations and out of these there were k observations which had sufficient observation data to rule out all known aerial phenomena as being the cause”.
So that would imply that P(UAP) is pretty much 1?
So what remains is “merely” to determine what lies in this set ‘UAP’ as it could pretty much be anything.
So how should one interpret findings like this: “We investigated n observations and out of these there were k observations which had sufficient observation data to rule out all known aerial phenomena as being the cause”.
If I take that statement at face value it means the observations were caused by some unknown phenomenon. Therefore, unknown phenomena of this type exist.
What if we have n observations where P( observation | ~UAP ) through investigation has been found to be 0 and, while hard to determine, P( observation | UAP ) is reasonably said to be strictly greater than 0.
Then P(UAP) will go towards 1, monotonously, as the number of observations increases, right?
Um, I don’t think you understand what it means for P( observation | ~UAP ) to equal 0. If P( observation | ~UAP ) were really 0, then a single such observation would be enough to comclude the P(UAP) is 1.
So how should one interpret findings like this: “We investigated n observations and out of these there were k observations which had sufficient observation data to rule out all known aerial phenomena as being the cause”.
So that would imply that P(UAP) is pretty much 1?
So what remains is “merely” to determine what lies in this set ‘UAP’ as it could pretty much be anything.
If I take that statement at face value it means the observations were caused by some unknown phenomenon. Therefore, unknown phenomena of this type exist.