If there’s any inaccuracy in the reporting, any mundane event can “resist identification”. Eyewitnesses are not as accurate as most people think they are.
And while you claim that ones that have insufficient observation data were excluded, I’ll believe it when I see a study, because that can mean a lot of things. (If there is enough information to rule out causes X and Y, but not Z or A, is that ‘insufficient observation data’? What if they ruled out all sorts of causes but didn’t rule out the possibility of, say, a hoax?)
I applaud looking at the studies. I included references to 7 studies and 4 case collections (including one collection solely of radar backed observations) in the References section of my article:
If there’s any inaccuracy in the reporting, any mundane event can “resist identification”. Eyewitnesses are not as accurate as most people think they are.
And while you claim that ones that have insufficient observation data were excluded, I’ll believe it when I see a study, because that can mean a lot of things. (If there is enough information to rule out causes X and Y, but not Z or A, is that ‘insufficient observation data’? What if they ruled out all sorts of causes but didn’t rule out the possibility of, say, a hoax?)
I applaud looking at the studies. I included references to 7 studies and 4 case collections (including one collection solely of radar backed observations) in the References section of my article:
http://myinnerouterworldsimulator.neocities.org/index.html
P(A | B) is not equal to 1 - p(A | not B). You are thinking p(A | B) = 1 - p(not A | B). Example:
p(A=0,B=0) = 0.1, p(A=0,B=1) = 0.2, p(A=1,B=0) = 0.3, p(A=1,B=1) = 0.4.
p(A=0 | B=0) = p(A=0,B=0) / ( p(A=1,B=0) + p(A=0,B=0) ) = 0.1 / (0.3+0.1) = 0.1/0.4 = 1⁄4
p(A=0 | B=1) = p(A=0,B=1) / ( p(A=0,B=1) + p(A=1,B=1) ) = 0.2 / (0.2+0.4) = 0.2/0.6 = 2⁄6 = 1⁄3
1⁄4 is not 1 − 1⁄3.
Someone else pointed this out already, are you updating on basic math errors?
I am aware of the error and will correct it—it’s on my todo list :)
[EDIT] fixed! (hopefully!)
http://myinnerouterworldsimulator.neocities.org/