Jumping out on a limb—and I might change my mind next week—but I would say “no”, if using current popular mainstream DRL techniques, because these lack (1) foresight (i.e., running a generative model to predict the result of different possible courses of action, and choosing on the basis of the results), and (2) analysis-by-synthesis (processing inputs by continually running searches through a space of generative models to find the model that best matches that input). I think humans do both, and without both (among other requirements), I picture systems as sorta more like “operating on instinct” rather than “intelligent”.
So (in my mind), your question would be “can we get ‘robustly human+ capabilities’ from a system operating on instinct?” and the answer is “Obviously yes when restricted to any finite set of tasks in any finite set of situations”, e.g. AlphaStar. With enough parameters, the set of tasks and situations could get awfully high, and maybe that counts as “robustly human+”—just as a large enough Giant Lookup Table might count as “robustly human+”. But my hunch is that systems with foresight and analysis-by-synthesis will be “robustly human+” earlier than any systems that operate on instinct.
Jumping out on a limb—and I might change my mind next week—but I would say “no”, if using current popular mainstream DRL techniques, because these lack (1) foresight (i.e., running a generative model to predict the result of different possible courses of action, and choosing on the basis of the results), and (2) analysis-by-synthesis (processing inputs by continually running searches through a space of generative models to find the model that best matches that input). I think humans do both, and without both (among other requirements), I picture systems as sorta more like “operating on instinct” rather than “intelligent”.
So (in my mind), your question would be “can we get ‘robustly human+ capabilities’ from a system operating on instinct?” and the answer is “Obviously yes when restricted to any finite set of tasks in any finite set of situations”, e.g. AlphaStar. With enough parameters, the set of tasks and situations could get awfully high, and maybe that counts as “robustly human+”—just as a large enough Giant Lookup Table might count as “robustly human+”. But my hunch is that systems with foresight and analysis-by-synthesis will be “robustly human+” earlier than any systems that operate on instinct.