Many people believe that they are able to be fully objective in evaluating claims—even those which run counter to their deeply-held beliefs. They further believe that by claiming themselves to be objective, this is reason for others to accept that they are objective. Not only is this false, but in fact the reverse is often true. People who delude themselves into thinking that they are objective are even more likely to fool themselves in other areas. The first step in overcoming bias is acknowledging its existence.
Natan Slifkin, The Seven Principles of Bias. (All seven are actually pretty short and make good points, although I’d be inclined to disagree with point 2.)
I’d be inclined to disagree with part 3 as well. If you are biased, your probability estimates are off. The fact that everyone’s probability estimates are off to at least some extent does not change the fact that yours are off.
I’d be inclined to disagree with part 3 as well. If you are biased, your probability estimates are off. The fact that everyone’s probability estimates are off to at least some extent does not change the fact that yours are off.
I don’t think Slifkin is talking there about wrong or right in the Bayesian sense. To translate that into a more Bayesian form it might be something like “Just because one is biased doesn’t mean that one’s probability estimate is drastically off” or something like that.
Natan Slifkin, The Seven Principles of Bias. (All seven are actually pretty short and make good points, although I’d be inclined to disagree with point 2.)
I’d be inclined to disagree with part 3 as well. If you are biased, your probability estimates are off. The fact that everyone’s probability estimates are off to at least some extent does not change the fact that yours are off.
I don’t think Slifkin is talking there about wrong or right in the Bayesian sense. To translate that into a more Bayesian form it might be something like “Just because one is biased doesn’t mean that one’s probability estimate is drastically off” or something like that.