By definition, the vast majority of the population can never be top-level. It would stop being top-level if everyone could do it.
Yes, the vast majority of the population can never be top-level at one given thing. But in principle it could well be possible that almost each person is top-level at something (though different people would be top-level at different things). That this isn’t the case is an empirical fact.
On the other hand, you can look at curricula in good schools these days and notice that we definitely seem to be expecting higher intellectual aptitude and greater achievements at early ages these days in order to give people the same levels of status and respect. So hmmm....
I think we’re feeling two different legs of the elephant, so to speak—or there may just be vast inequalities in education as in everything else these days.
I’d have to do quite a bit of searching to get hard backing statistics, but consider, for instance, the average age at which a young scientist achieves an independent position or tenure, or the average publication quantity of people who do get positions, or even (so I’ve heard) the average publication quantity/quality of people who get into graduate school. As far as I know, these indicators have very much been increasing over time; there may even be a causative link: grade inflation at the lower end of the system causing grade deflation the further up you go.
(For example, I’m told that it’s now difficult to get into graduate school if you don’t already have authorship on a publication.)
There’s also anecdotes like these, indicating that people (at least, aspiring Officially Smart People) are being taught more mathematics at an earlier age than previously.
I’d have to do quite a bit of searching to get hard backing statistics, but consider, for instance, the average age at which a young scientist achieves an independent position or tenure, or the average publication quantity of people who do get positions, or even (so I’ve heard) the average publication quantity/quality of people who get into graduate school.
That slash is a division bar, right? ;-)
(More seriously: Sure, students today might know much more maths than Newton did, but being able to learn calculus from a teacher and/or a textbook is a much lower bar than being able to invent calculus from scratch.)
(More seriously: Sure, students today might know much more maths than Newton did, but being able to learn calculus from a teacher and/or a textbook is a much lower bar than being able to invent calculus from scratch.)
True. But the average Maths PhD today is doing something Newton could never have invented at all. Yes, we do stand on the shoulders of giants nowadays, as did Newton, but picking higher-hanging fruit (say: the Standard Model compared to classical mechanics) requires both a greater knowledge of maths and a greater creative effort.
Anyway, point being, I simply don’t feel able to believe that “incredibly high general intelligence” is truly the determining factor of even Famous Historical Hero-level science. There seem to be lots of other things going on.
Yes, the vast majority of the population can never be top-level at one given thing. But in principle it could well be possible that almost each person is top-level at something (though different people would be top-level at different things). That this isn’t the case is an empirical fact.
Where are you looking, exactly? Over here it looks quite different.
I think we’re feeling two different legs of the elephant, so to speak—or there may just be vast inequalities in education as in everything else these days.
I’d have to do quite a bit of searching to get hard backing statistics, but consider, for instance, the average age at which a young scientist achieves an independent position or tenure, or the average publication quantity of people who do get positions, or even (so I’ve heard) the average publication quantity/quality of people who get into graduate school. As far as I know, these indicators have very much been increasing over time; there may even be a causative link: grade inflation at the lower end of the system causing grade deflation the further up you go.
(For example, I’m told that it’s now difficult to get into graduate school if you don’t already have authorship on a publication.)
There’s also anecdotes like these, indicating that people (at least, aspiring Officially Smart People) are being taught more mathematics at an earlier age than previously.
I wish we had some hard data to clear things up.
That slash is a division bar, right? ;-)
(More seriously: Sure, students today might know much more maths than Newton did, but being able to learn calculus from a teacher and/or a textbook is a much lower bar than being able to invent calculus from scratch.)
True. But the average Maths PhD today is doing something Newton could never have invented at all. Yes, we do stand on the shoulders of giants nowadays, as did Newton, but picking higher-hanging fruit (say: the Standard Model compared to classical mechanics) requires both a greater knowledge of maths and a greater creative effort.
Anyway, point being, I simply don’t feel able to believe that “incredibly high general intelligence” is truly the determining factor of even Famous Historical Hero-level science. There seem to be lots of other things going on.