Like others, I’m not seeing the likelyhood of a big European war involving the USSR without Hitler. Hitler’s absence wouldn’t have made things go any better for the Soviets in the Winter War, and likely that would have discouraged Soviet planners from trying to take on anyone bigger when it seemed like they could barely handle Finland. A saner German government would likely have viewed Poland as a valuable buffer against the USSR, rather than trying to get past Poland to attack the USSR. I find it easier to imagine the USSR being much more aggressive in the East if they didn’t have the Nazi threat in the West, though it’s very hard to know what all could have happened with Soviet-Japanese relations and the various third parties that would have taken an interest.
But fun though thinking through the details is, your larger point is obviously more important. There’s a tendency to view history as inevitable in general, and that seems to be wrong (so much luck involved!) and to offer the wrong lessons (seemingly similar situations can end up going wildly differently). Certainly it is very frustrating that Hitler has given appeasement such a bad name, when historically it has nearly always been an incredibly effective strategy (those who are bribed usually become motivated to play nice enough that the briber doesn’t regret the decision, and further they’re often motivated to eliminate potential rivals so that they get any potential future bribes themselves, so bribing one threat often protects against many).
Like others, I’m not seeing the likelyhood of a big European war involving the USSR without Hitler. Hitler’s absence wouldn’t have made things go any better for the Soviets in the Winter War, and likely that would have discouraged Soviet planners from trying to take on anyone bigger when it seemed like they could barely handle Finland. A saner German government would likely have viewed Poland as a valuable buffer against the USSR, rather than trying to get past Poland to attack the USSR. I find it easier to imagine the USSR being much more aggressive in the East if they didn’t have the Nazi threat in the West, though it’s very hard to know what all could have happened with Soviet-Japanese relations and the various third parties that would have taken an interest.
But fun though thinking through the details is, your larger point is obviously more important. There’s a tendency to view history as inevitable in general, and that seems to be wrong (so much luck involved!) and to offer the wrong lessons (seemingly similar situations can end up going wildly differently). Certainly it is very frustrating that Hitler has given appeasement such a bad name, when historically it has nearly always been an incredibly effective strategy (those who are bribed usually become motivated to play nice enough that the briber doesn’t regret the decision, and further they’re often motivated to eliminate potential rivals so that they get any potential future bribes themselves, so bribing one threat often protects against many).