The vast majority of the work will be done not for immediate personal gain, but for the same reason most other research gets done. As we get closer, things will probably get more volatile, but whether we get academia all the way to the finish line or some sort of government arms race or something in between, I think it’s most likely that AGI will be created qua AGI.
“Academia” is an interesting way to put it. Bluntly, the people currently trying to make AGI seem like kooks—sometimes associated with academic institutions but without much support from respectable people. (You’ll recall that MIRI is not trying to create AGI yet.)
Now, my list may be too heavily influenced by present conditions. I certainly think the development will take longer than this post might suggest. I would have included an ‘everything else’ category except that I was inviting people to add possibilities. But are you actually saying you think academia will begin a credible AGI project, before one of the options on my list is well underway, and do so without AI safety people pushing that option?
I’m also somewhat confused by the idea of a government arms race having the deliberate aim of creating AGI, rather than #7 or weapons of some kind. Our governments have taken on strange projects, but usually with a nominal goal connected to some function of government.
How did we develop that knowledge? Did nobody use it to make tons of money before it was knowably sufficient to create AGI?
The vast majority of the work will be done not for immediate personal gain, but for the same reason most other research gets done. As we get closer, things will probably get more volatile, but whether we get academia all the way to the finish line or some sort of government arms race or something in between, I think it’s most likely that AGI will be created qua AGI.
“Academia” is an interesting way to put it. Bluntly, the people currently trying to make AGI seem like kooks—sometimes associated with academic institutions but without much support from respectable people. (You’ll recall that MIRI is not trying to create AGI yet.)
Now, my list may be too heavily influenced by present conditions. I certainly think the development will take longer than this post might suggest. I would have included an ‘everything else’ category except that I was inviting people to add possibilities. But are you actually saying you think academia will begin a credible AGI project, before one of the options on my list is well underway, and do so without AI safety people pushing that option?
I’m also somewhat confused by the idea of a government arms race having the deliberate aim of creating AGI, rather than #7 or weapons of some kind. Our governments have taken on strange projects, but usually with a nominal goal connected to some function of government.