Someone, however, who can reliably predict another person’s behavior is likely a reliable judge of that other person’s motivation.
You are using the word “likely” in a manner that is inconsistent with the probability calculus.
Often times, multiple people will reliably predict that a comment will be downvoted, though each attributes a different motivation to the downvotes. They can’t all be “likely a reliable judge” of that motivation. The respective probabilities of their being correct have to sum to less than one, so all but one (at most) is probably wrong.
You are using the word “likely” in a manner that is inconsistent with the probability calculus.
Often times, multiple people will reliably predict that a comment will be downvoted, though each attributes a different motivation to the downvotes. They can’t all be “likely a reliable judge” of that motivation. The respective probabilities of their being correct have to sum to less than one, so all but one (at most) is probably wrong.