I think it’s not stupid. Often in real cases and applied rationality you don’t have cleanly cooked up priors and distributions. You only have data like the series above, and it’s up to you to draw conclusions. Success happens when you are modest in your suppositions and able to change idea based on future evidence.
I think it’s not stupid. Often in real cases and applied rationality you don’t have cleanly cooked up priors and distributions. You only have data like the series above, and it’s up to you to draw conclusions.
Success happens when you are modest in your suppositions and able to change idea based on future evidence.