If the current doubling time is T, and each subsequent doubling takes 10% less time, then you have infinite doublings (i.e. singularity) by time 10T. So with T = 4.5 months you get singularity by 45 months. This is completely insensitive to the initial conditions or to the trend in changes-in-doubling-time (unless the number “10%” was chosen based on trend extrapolation, but that doesn’t seem to be the case).
(In practice the superexponential model predicts singularity even sooner than 45 months, because of the additional effect from automated AI R&D.)
But it isn’t trend extrapolation?
If the current doubling time is T, and each subsequent doubling takes 10% less time, then you have infinite doublings (i.e. singularity) by time 10T. So with T = 4.5 months you get singularity by 45 months. This is completely insensitive to the initial conditions or to the trend in changes-in-doubling-time (unless the number “10%” was chosen based on trend extrapolation, but that doesn’t seem to be the case).
(In practice the superexponential model predicts singularity even sooner than 45 months, because of the additional effect from automated AI R&D.)