I suspect part of the reasons for the quality-weighted criticism of the timelines rather than the scenario:
If it is the case that you put far less effort into the timelines model than the scenario, then the timelines model is probably just worse—some of the more obvious mistakes that titotal points out probably don’t have analogies in your scenario, so its just easier to criticise the timelines model, as there is more to criticise there
In many ways, the timelines model is pretty key to the headline claim of your scenario. The other parts (scenario and takeoff) are useful, high quality contributions but in many ways are less meaningfully novel than the very aggressive timelines. Your takeoff model, for example, is well within the range of speeds considered in the community for years—indeed, it is far slower than a Yudkowskian takeoff for example. This isn’t to degrade it—the level of detail in the scenario is commendable and the quality in that respect is genuinely novel. But in terms of what the media coverage, and impact of the work, its the timelines that I suspect are the most significant
I suspect part of the reasons for the quality-weighted criticism of the timelines rather than the scenario:
If it is the case that you put far less effort into the timelines model than the scenario, then the timelines model is probably just worse—some of the more obvious mistakes that titotal points out probably don’t have analogies in your scenario, so its just easier to criticise the timelines model, as there is more to criticise there
In many ways, the timelines model is pretty key to the headline claim of your scenario. The other parts (scenario and takeoff) are useful, high quality contributions but in many ways are less meaningfully novel than the very aggressive timelines. Your takeoff model, for example, is well within the range of speeds considered in the community for years—indeed, it is far slower than a Yudkowskian takeoff for example. This isn’t to degrade it—the level of detail in the scenario is commendable and the quality in that respect is genuinely novel. But in terms of what the media coverage, and impact of the work, its the timelines that I suspect are the most significant