The problem is that this is rational behaviour for a market, but, if it fails, it’s not really exploitable.
As in, the only way to profit is if a disaster happens, and then you’ve just profited a little bit by having a more rational consumption profile, rather than profited arbitrarily.
You make a good point. I wonder if there’s a nice way to exploit this to make conditional risk estimates, consumable by futarchy.
The problem is that this is rational behaviour for a market, but, if it fails, it’s not really exploitable.
As in, the only way to profit is if a disaster happens, and then you’ve just profited a little bit by having a more rational consumption profile, rather than profited arbitrarily.