Like the list of stuff you said are extremely specific things.
I assume those were not chosen randomly from a large set of possible motivations, but because those options were somehow salient for Thane. So I would guess the priors are higher than 1e-6.
For example, I have high priors on “wants to distract people from something” for politicians, because I have seen it executed successfully a few times. The amateur version is doing it after people notice some bad thing you did, to take attention away from the scandal; the pro version is doing it shortly before you do the bad thing, so that no one even notices it, and if someone does, no one will pay attention because the cool kids are debating something else.
Okay it was a specific (hypothetical) example where I in particular made the false claim.
Whats your current REAL p(williawa
currently wants to cause a commotion to distract lesswrong from something
currently wants to paint himself as a victim for some future gain
wants to erode trust between people on lesswrong
And how would you update* if I started making a as credible case I could about so and so person SA-ing me? How would you update if you were sure I was lying?
I think if you don’t make an update you’re very clearly just being irrational. And I don’t think you have any reason to update differently, or really have different priors, than Thane. I don’t know either of you I don’t think.
So if you’re updating, Thane should be as well, irrespective of the saliency thing.
Conditional on you not making the claim (or before you make the claim) and generally not doing anything exceptional, all three probabilities seem small… I hesitate to put an exact number on them, but yeah, 1e-6 could be a reasonable value.
Comparing the three options relatively to each other, I think there is no reason why someone would want to distract lesswrong from something. Wanting to erode trust seems unlikely but possible. So the greatest probability of these three would go to painting yourself a victim, because there are people like that out there.
If you made the claim, I would probably add a fourth hypothesis, which would be that you are someone else’s second account; someone who had some kind of conflict with Thane in the past, and that this is some kind of revenge. And of course the fifth hypothesis that the accusation is true. And a sixth hypothesis that the accusation is an exaggeration of something that actually happened.
(The details would depend on the exact accusation and Thane’s reaction. For example, if he confirmed having met you, that would remove the “someone else’s sockpuppet account” option.)
If you made the accusation (without having had this conversation), I would probably put 40% probabilities on “it happened” and “exaggeration”, and 20% on “playing victim”, with the remaining options being relatively negligible, although more likely that if you didn’t make the claim. The exact numbers would probably depend on my current mood, and specific words used.
I assume those were not chosen randomly from a large set of possible motivations, but because those options were somehow salient for Thane. So I would guess the priors are higher than 1e-6.
For example, I have high priors on “wants to distract people from something” for politicians, because I have seen it executed successfully a few times. The amateur version is doing it after people notice some bad thing you did, to take attention away from the scandal; the pro version is doing it shortly before you do the bad thing, so that no one even notices it, and if someone does, no one will pay attention because the cool kids are debating something else.
Okay it was a specific (hypothetical) example where I in particular made the false claim.
Whats your current REAL p(williawa
currently wants to cause a commotion to distract lesswrong from something
currently wants to paint himself as a victim for some future gain
wants to erode trust between people on lesswrong
And how would you update* if I started making a as credible case I could about so and so person SA-ing me? How would you update if you were sure I was lying?
I think if you don’t make an update you’re very clearly just being irrational. And I don’t think you have any reason to update differently, or really have different priors, than Thane. I don’t know either of you I don’t think.
So if you’re updating, Thane should be as well, irrespective of the saliency thing.
Conditional on you not making the claim (or before you make the claim) and generally not doing anything exceptional, all three probabilities seem small… I hesitate to put an exact number on them, but yeah, 1e-6 could be a reasonable value.
Comparing the three options relatively to each other, I think there is no reason why someone would want to distract lesswrong from something. Wanting to erode trust seems unlikely but possible. So the greatest probability of these three would go to painting yourself a victim, because there are people like that out there.
If you made the claim, I would probably add a fourth hypothesis, which would be that you are someone else’s second account; someone who had some kind of conflict with Thane in the past, and that this is some kind of revenge. And of course the fifth hypothesis that the accusation is true. And a sixth hypothesis that the accusation is an exaggeration of something that actually happened.
(The details would depend on the exact accusation and Thane’s reaction. For example, if he confirmed having met you, that would remove the “someone else’s sockpuppet account” option.)
If you made the accusation (without having had this conversation), I would probably put 40% probabilities on “it happened” and “exaggeration”, and 20% on “playing victim”, with the remaining options being relatively negligible, although more likely that if you didn’t make the claim. The exact numbers would probably depend on my current mood, and specific words used.