Which issue are you talking about? Is there already a comments thread about it on Eliezer’s post?
Found it. It was nested too deep in a comment tree.
The particular line was:
I would ask him what he knows now, in advance, that all those sane intelligent people will miss. I don’t see how you could (well-justifiedly) access that epistemic state.
The position is something I think it is best I don’t mention again until (unless) I get around to writing the post “Predicting Failure Without Details” to express the position clearly with references and what limits apply to that kind of reasoning.
Which issue are you talking about? Is there already a comments thread about it on Eliezer’s post?
Found it. It was nested too deep in a comment tree.
The particular line was:
The position is something I think it is best I don’t mention again until (unless) I get around to writing the post “Predicting Failure Without Details” to express the position clearly with references and what limits apply to that kind of reasoning.
Isn’t it just straight-up outside view prediction?
I thought so.