I’m not sure exactly what quantity you are calculating when you refer to the singularity date. Is this the extrapolated date for 50% success at 1 month (167hr) tasks?
. . . not quite: I’d forgotten that your threshold was a man-month, instead of a month of clock time. I’ll redo things with the task length being a month of work for people who do need to eat/sleep/etc: luckily this doesn’t change results much, since 730 hours and 167 hours are right next door on a log(t) scale.
SWAA fits most naturally into the ‘fully_private’ category in the HCAST parlance.
Your diagnosis was on the money. Filtering for the union of fully_private HCAST tasks and SWAA tasks (while keeping the three models which caused crashes without SWAAs) does still make forecasts more optimistic, but only nets half an extra year for the every-model model, and two extra years for the since-4o model.
I’ll edit the OP appropriately; thank you for your help. (In retrospect, I probably should have run the numbery stuff past METR before posting, instead of just my qualitative concerns; I figured that if I was successfully reproducing the headline results I would be getting everything else right, but it would still have made sense to get a second opinion.)
. . . not quite: I’d forgotten that your threshold was a man-month, instead of a month of clock time. I’ll redo things with the task length being a month of work for people who do need to eat/sleep/etc: luckily this doesn’t change results much, since 730 hours and 167 hours are right next door on a log(t) scale.
Your diagnosis was on the money. Filtering for the union of fully_private HCAST tasks and SWAA tasks (while keeping the three models which caused crashes without SWAAs) does still make forecasts more optimistic, but only nets half an extra year for the every-model model, and two extra years for the since-4o model.
I’ll edit the OP appropriately; thank you for your help. (In retrospect, I probably should have run the numbery stuff past METR before posting, instead of just my qualitative concerns; I figured that if I was successfully reproducing the headline results I would be getting everything else right, but it would still have made sense to get a second opinion.)